Climate change is fundamentally threatening wine production across the globe, according to new research examining how rising temperatures, drought, and increasing wildfire risk are transforming the conditions that grapegrowers depend on. The study, which focused on five of Australia’s major wine regions, found that human-induced climate change has already made those areas hotter and drier compared with earlier decades — a trend mirrored in renowned wine-producing regions from California to Chile to South Africa.
Researchers analysed rainfall and temperature records dating back to 1940 for South Australia’s Barossa Valley, the Hunter Valley in New South Wales, Western Australia’s Margaret River region, the Yarra Valley in Victoria, and Tasmania’s Tamar Valley. Their findings show that conditions during the peak grapegrowing season have shifted significantly, with warmer and drier weather becoming more common. The authors warn that winemakers may increasingly need to move to higher altitudes or further south to find suitable growing conditions. The research also highlights the compounding threat of wildfire: smoke exposure can impart a burnt or ashy flavour to grapes, a phenomenon known as smoke taint, which can deter consumers from purchasing wine from fire-affected regions.
Using climate models, the researchers identified where today’s most popular grape varieties might find suitable growing conditions in the future. The results for Western Australia were stark — nowhere in the state is projected to develop a climate comparable to what Margaret River currently has. The nearest equivalent, the study found, would be Victoria’s Grampians region, on the other side of the country. Climate change is not only closing doors, however. In some cases it is opening new ones: English grapegrowers are already cultivating varieties previously limited to France’s Champagne region, and Tasmania may become increasingly viable for wine production as temperatures rise.
Growers are already adapting in various ways — trialling more efficient irrigation systems, planting cover crops to retain moisture, and switching to heat-tolerant grape varieties. In Chile’s Biobío Valley, for example, warmer conditions may favour semillon and tempranillo over the pinot noir and riesling traditionally grown there. Researchers also flag the additional pressure of El Niño, with forecasts suggesting the current cycle could be among the strongest on record, increasing the likelihood of hot, dry and fire-prone conditions across parts of Australia.
The study’s authors stress that addressing the long-term survival of established wine regions will require both adaptation strategies and meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Without action on both fronts, the cumulative effects of a warming climate risk permanently altering what can be grown, and where.