Australia’s Future Under 3°C Warming: A Grim Outlook
Imagine a future where bushfires like the 2019-2020 Black Summer occur almost yearly, where 50°C days in Sydney and Melbourne are common, and where Australia’s coastlines are reshaped by intense storms and flooding. This is the likely future if the world reaches 3°C of warming this century—a projection based on current global commitments under the Paris Climate Accord.
A new report from the Australian Academy of Science explores the potential damage that this level of warming could bring to Australia’s ecosystems, food production, cities, and human health. The findings make it clear: we must dramatically reduce emissions to avoid this future and better prepare for the impacts that are already unfolding.
Key Points
- Ecosystems: Australia’s unique ecosystems are under severe threat. Under 3°C warming, coral reefs are likely to disappear, marine life will suffer due to more acidic oceans, and land ecosystems like the Gondwana rainforests and Kakadu wetlands will become unrecognizable.
- Food Production: Droughts, heatwaves, and extreme weather events will reduce the yields of key crops by up to 50%, while livestock will struggle with increased heat stress. Fishing and aquaculture industries will also be negatively affected by changing marine conditions.
- Cities and Towns: Coastal flooding will put up to 250,000 properties at risk, and extreme heat will put immense strain on energy infrastructure. Insurance premiums may become unaffordable for many properties.
- Human Health: Heatwaves and bushfires will pose severe risks to health, particularly among the elderly and disadvantaged. Higher temperatures will make some areas difficult to inhabit due to water scarcity.
Action Required
The report urges immediate action to limit warming to below 2°C, including substantial emissions reductions, greater use of renewable energy, and better climate adaptation strategies. Australia must also work towards building more climate-resilient infrastructure and communities while fostering innovation and leadership in mitigating climate impacts.
