Can Farming Continue in Australia as Climate Change Worsens?
Climate change poses a serious threat to Australia’s farming sector, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggesting that vast parts of the bush may need to be abandoned unless there is substantial investment in climate adaptation and planning. In their article, Andrew Wait and Kieron Meagher explore the consequences of climate change for rural livelihoods and the cost of adapting to these challenges. Even with emission reductions, Australia’s rural areas are likely to incur significant adaptation expenses.
Projected Temperature Rises and Their Impact
The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report indicates that temperature rises are inevitable, with even conservative projections pointing to a 1.5°C increase. Such a rise could double the frequency of droughts, making them occur every five years instead of every ten. With a 2°C rise, drought frequency could increase by 2.5 times.
Falling Farm Profits
Climate change is already affecting Australian agriculture, with farm profits decreasing significantly. According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), agricultural profits have fallen by 23% over the past two decades. This trend is expected to continue, with farm profits likely to fall by 13% by 2050, and some regions, such as Western Australia, facing a 32% drop in cropping profits.
Stranded Assets
With higher emissions, the reduction in farm profits could be much worse, ranging from 11% to 50%. As a result, agricultural land and infrastructure may become worthless—turning into “stranded assets”—as inconsistent water supplies, natural disasters, and production risks make farming in some areas economically unviable.
Regional Livability and Water Challenges
Regional communities are interdependent networks involving farms, businesses, infrastructure, and people. Lower farm incomes will negatively affect these communities, leading to fewer jobs and the closure of businesses, leaving many with unsellable assets.
Water Insecurity
Water is vital for sustaining regional communities, yet development planning in Australia has not sufficiently accounted for the impact of climate change on water availability. For example, the NSW Auditor General reported that the state government has not adequately supported water infrastructure planning in regional areas, leading to several towns nearly running out of water during the 2019 drought.
Population Pressures
Population growth in some areas has further stressed water resources. Towns surrounding Canberra, for instance, have experienced increased pressure due to population growth. In January 2020, Braidwood had to truck in water due to the Shoalhaven river stopping its flow, while nearby Bungedore was constructing a new school to accommodate a growing population.
Need for Investment in Adaptation
Addressing the risks to agricultural livelihoods and stranded assets in regional communities requires significant investment in climate adaptation. Governments need to plan for economic structural changes and support regions in transitioning to more sustainable practices.
Budget Planning for Adaptation
While the federal government has committed A$20 billion to adopting low-emissions technologies, there is also an urgent need to fund adaptation measures. The A$1.2 billion over five years allocated for natural disasters is only the beginning. In some areas, subsidized insurance, changes in farming practices, and investment in water infrastructure may be sufficient. However, building infrastructure takes years, and some areas may become unviable altogether, requiring plans to deal with internal climate migration.
Conclusion
Climate change threatens the viability of agriculture in many parts of Australia, with significant consequences for rural communities. Without substantial investment in adaptation, Australia could face a future with stranded assets, abandoned farmlands, and displaced populations. Planning and budgeting for the costs of living with climate change, beyond reducing emissions, are crucial for ensuring the resilience of Australia’s agricultural sector and rural communities.
Important Points
- Australia may have to abandon some of its farming areas due to climate change.
- Projected temperature increases will make droughts more frequent and severe.
- Farm profits have declined significantly, and further reductions are expected.
- Water availability is a critical issue for regional communities, with inadequate planning exacerbating risks.
- Adaptation measures are urgently needed, including economic restructuring and infrastructure investment.
