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How Climate Change is Powering Extreme Storms

Hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones, often referred to as “nature’s steam engines,” are evolving due to rising ocean temperatures. As the world’s oceans continue to heat up, storms are becoming more unpredictable, intense, and dangerous. Scientists are in a race to understand how these extreme weather events are changing to improve adaptation and resilience.

Key Changes in Storm Behavior

1. Longer and Earlier Hurricane Season

Warmer ocean waters are leading to earlier and longer hurricane seasons. Scientists suggest that in the future, we may see storms forming earlier in the year, and overall hurricane seasons extending beyond what was typical in previous decades.

2. Overcoming Unfavorable Conditions

Recent hurricanes, such as Hurricane Lee in 2023, have managed to reach category five strength despite conditions like high wind shear, which typically inhibit storm formation. This suggests that warmer ocean waters might now be overpowering natural inhibitors of storm development.

3. Faster Intensification

As ocean temperatures rise, hurricanes are gaining intensity more quickly. Rapid intensification limits the time available for preparation and increases the destructive power of storms when they make landfall.

4. Increased Peak Intensity

Hurricanes are now more likely to reach higher categories. Studies have shown a 6% per decade increase in storm intensity since 1979, with a higher probability of reaching category three or more.

5. Slowing Movement

Hurricanes are not only intensifying faster, but they are also slowing down along their path. Slower-moving hurricanes bring prolonged rainfall to impacted areas, increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding. The slower pace is linked to changes in the global temperature gradient, particularly due to faster warming in the Arctic compared to the tropics.

6. Changing Storm Tracks

Storm paths are shifting away from the tropics, moving approximately one degree of latitude per decade. This change means that areas previously less exposed to hurricanes, such as Japan, are now at increased risk, while traditional storm zones like the Philippines may see slight decreases in risk.

Ocean and Atmospheric Conditions

Deep Warm Layers

Hurricanes draw energy from deep warm water, sustaining their intensity longer. With deep layers of warm water present in the Atlantic, storms are able to maintain their strength and continue intensifying.

Loss of Protective Wind Shear Barrier

Climate change is weakening wind shear patterns in the Atlantic that act as a protective barrier, leading to stronger storms approaching the US coast.

Reduced Air Pollution and Its Impact

Efforts to reduce air pollution since the 1970s have unintentionally led to faster warming in the Atlantic. Sulphate pollutants previously blocked sunlight and cooled ocean temperatures; with less pollution, oceans are heating faster, contributing to increased storm activity.

Increasing Rainfall and Storm Surge

Warmer air can hold more moisture, and hurricanes are capable of becoming wetter due to increased global temperatures. This means that storm surges and hurricane-induced flooding are getting worse. Rising sea levels further amplify the destructive impact of these surges.

Adapting to a New Reality

Infrastructure and Policy Adaptations

Limiting development in coastal areas, reinforcing buildings, and deploying natural solutions, like planting grasses or restoring oyster beds, are critical strategies to mitigate hurricane damage.

Early-Warning Systems

Reliable warning systems and timely evacuation notices are essential for saving lives as storm intensity and unpredictability increase.

The Importance of Adaptation

As climate change progresses, the need for adaptation grows. Since we can’t stop climate change immediately, adaptation—whether through better infrastructure, nature-based solutions, or improved policies—will be essential in facing the evolving threat posed by hurricanes.

Conclusion

Climate change is fundamentally altering the behavior of extreme storms, making them stronger, slower, and more unpredictable. Adaptation strategies are crucial in protecting communities and mitigating the impact of these evolving threats. Without decisive action to adapt to this new reality, the consequences will be increasingly devastating.

Read the original article on BBC Future

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